by Jason Wilk on January 19, 2009
- Google earnings expected to be grim when they are released Thursday. According to the WSJ, U.S. search advertising spend fell 8% in the fourth quarter of 2008 from the same period in 2007, according to a new study from search advertising firm Efficient Frontier, whose search industry spending index was flat for most of 2008. The study — which covers an undisclosed portion of the $750 million in annual spending the company manages globally — marks the first quarter of negative annual growth for its index in the several years Efficient Frontier has been gathering such data, says James Beriker, president and CEO of the firm”.
- Sampling a search advertising firm may not predict the whole industry pie that includes Google, Yahoo and MSN, but if search marketers are seeing revenues drop, it should be a good sample of what is to come.
- Here are a few things that might throw off the numbers for Google.
- First, if market share had anything to do with it, Google’s has actually grown to 72% over last year’s 65%. That a direct result of more online search adoption, and could help to offset falling revenues. I said the same thing with Amazon, where the reason why they had such a big holiday season was a simple math problem.
- Second, Google has been pulling out all the stops this quarter to find new avenues to drive revenue. In September, Google began allowing beer and wine companies to advertise, and as of recently hard alcohol companies. In addition, they have begun monetizing Google Maps, casual games, mobile search, and more for the first time ever.
- Third, Google has always said that in a bad economy, many retailers and other advertisers flock to Google because it’s one of the few places to keep a close eye on your pennies. Between Google Analytics and conversion tracking, it’s unlike any other form of advertising. Holiday advertising spend showed this.
- Fourth, Android, Google’s mobile operating system is expected to pick up quickly this year and is expected to out sell the iPhone’s OS by 2010.
- To me, it’s not this 4th quarter that is worrisome. Between Google adding new ways to monetize different products, adding significant market share and branding themselves as ‘the place to go to advertise in a bad economy’, they will be fine. However, I think Q1 will see tougher times for the search giant. Q1 will see a Google that has squeezed out revenue from any potential products, no holiday season and a slowly growing online search adoption through the first 2 quarters. Here are a few more stats from the study:
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- “Advertisers who spend less than $50,000 on search ads cut their spending by 23% year-over-year, while advertisers that spend more than $200,000 on search per month cut spending by 9% during that time. Purchases by advertisers who spend between $50,000 and $200,000 were relatively flat.”
- “Finance and automotive advertising continued to deteriorate. Search-ad spending among financial advertisers fell 20% compared to the fourth quarter of 2007. Search spending from automotive advertisers declined 15% during that period.”
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by Jason Wilk on December 29, 2008
- This was circulating around Digg yesterday, but I feel it’s an important quick read for any entrepreneur. It was written by Tony Hsieh, CEO of Zappos on his company blog. Thanks Tony.
EVALUATING MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
- Table selection is the most important decision you can make.
- It’s okay to switch tables if you discover it’s too hard to win at your table.
- If there are too many competitors (some irrational or inexperienced), even if you’re the best it’s a lot harder to win.
MARKETING AND BRANDING
- Act weak when strong, act strong when weak. Know when to bluff.
- Your “brand” is important.
- Help shape the stories that people are telling about you.
FINANCIALS
- Always be prepared for the worst possible scenario.
- The guy who wins the most hands is not the guy who makes the most money in the long run.
- The guy who never loses a hand is not the guy who makes the most money in the long run.
- Go for positive expected value, not what’s least risky.
- Make sure your bankroll is large enough for the game you’re playing and the risks you’re taking.
- Play only with what you can afford to lose.
- Remember it’s a long term game. You will win or lose individual sessions, but it’s what happens in the long term that matters.
STRATEGY
- Don’t play games that you don’t understand, even if you see lots of other people making money from them.
- Figure out the game when the stakes aren’t high.
- Don’t cheat. Cheaters never win in the long run.
- Stick to your principles.
- You need to adjust your style of play throughout the night as the dynamics of the game change. Be flexible.
- Be patient and think long term.
- The players with the most stamina and focus usually win.
- Differentiate yourself. Do the opposite of what the rest of the table is doing.
- Hope is not a good plan.
- Don’t let yourself go “on tilt”. It’s much more cost effective to take a break, walk around, or leave the game for the night.
CONTINUAL LEARNING
- Educate yourself. Read books and learn from others who have done it before.
- Learn by doing. Theory is nice, but nothing replaces actual experience.
- Learn by surrounding yourself with talented players.
- Just because you win a hand doesn’t mean you’re good and you don’t have more learning to do. You might have just gotten lucky.
- Don’t be afraid to ask for advice.
CULTURE
- You’ve gotta love the game. To become really good, you need to live it and sleep it.
- Don’t be cocky. Don’t be flashy. There’s always someone better than you.
- Be nice and make friends. It’s a small community.
- Share what you’ve learned with others.
- Look for opportunities beyond just the game you sat down to play. You never know who you’re going to meet, including new friends for life or new business contacts.
- Have fun. The game is a lot more enjoyable when you’re trying to do more than just make money.
by David Heyerman on December 20, 2008
- When Sempra Generation contracted First Solar to build their 12.6 mega-watt system, I’m sure they were excited about the potential sustainability and financial aspects of the project, but now they have a serious reason to be excited.
- They’ve just announced that the system produces electricity which is under the price of conventional energy in the US. That’s right, solar is cheaper than coal! Well, atleast in First Solar’s case.
- Normal energy fed into the grid costs right around $.09 per kilowatt hour, while First Solar’s Nevada desert system feeds energy in at $.075 per kilowatt hour.
- What a great development all around for renewables, the future appears a little brighter.
by David Heyerman on December 18, 2008
- It’s without a doubt the long-term sustainability and financial aspects of cleantech investment are promising. However, due to the current state of the economy mixed with an uncertainty in production efficiency, investment in 2009 will continue to grow, but at a slower rate than 2008.
- Cleantech VC, @Ventures go further to say that there’s really no way to gauge the cleantech market’s future. Their reasoning behind this is although there’ve been very few failures with venture backed cleantech companies, there’ve also been very few exits. Isn’t this to be expected with a relatively new market in general? As investment grows, startups weed eachother out, leaving only the ones with the most efficient practices. We’re still in that weeding-out stage, and I can imagine as we dive deeper into this recession, those top companies will become more prominent.
- Obama just appointed an accomplished energy team including LA’s own, Nancy Sutly. Before being appointed to Obama’s cabinet, she served as Los Angeles’s debuty mayor of energy and the environment. Considering Obama could invest near $100 Billion within his first year on energy infrastructure and green job creation, the future of cleantech appears to be shining bright.
- It’s safe to say that like almost all markets, including cleantech, growth will slow in 2009. This takes nothing away from the whole reason behind cleantech itself; long-term sustainability with the goal of preserving the environment. As we progress and bounce back from this slight dip in the economy, leading green companies will grow, as will invesments in the sector.
- UPDATE: According to a report released yesterday, a National Venture Capital Association survey has shown that although VC investment will slow in 2009, greentech will receive more venture capital than any other sector.
by David Heyerman on December 15, 2008
- Epuron, a subsidiary of Conergy, as well as GE Energy Financial Services have joined together to launch the first Asian-Pacific renewable energy private trust. The name of the project is appropriately titled, The Renewable Energy Trust Asia (or RETA for short).
- GE’s one of the largest wind turbine producers in the world, not to mention their above average involvement in various other cleantech arenas. Conergy, on the other hand, produces solar products, most notably, photovoltaic solar modules while Epuron develops large-scale solar and biomass projects.
- Investments into the trust will help develop growth in wind, solar, small hydroelectric, biogas, and biomass power with hopes of achieving $250 million in investments and around 200 Megawatts of power within the next five years.
- As anchor investor in the project, GE will own 80% stake, while Epuron holds 20. GE obviously sees the future potential of investments like these, as they’ve already put forth $4 Billion into renewables to date. Both companies project the renewable energy opportunity in India, South Korea, and ASEAN nations (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam) to near $7 Billion a year.
- Epuron’s list of responsibilities include sourcing projects, debt financing, project development, and acquisition of hardware. Then, once the projects are completed, Epuron manages them.
- Sounds like a great deal for GE.
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