Update: YouTube On Track To Lose $470M This Year. Ouch

by Jason Wilk on April 6, 2009

youtube

  • A new report by Credit Suisse projects that Google’s video giant, YouTube is on track to lose $470 million this year says NewTeeVee. Credit Suisse says YouTube will generate $240 million in revenue, but that’s nothing in comparison to the $711 million in licensing, server, marketing and other expenses the site is projected to see this year. A similar problem to what Facebook sees, server costs are supposed to be as much as $360 million this year. Here is how”

To arrive at the estimated $360 million bandwidth tab for YouTube, the analysts assumed the site will receive 375 million unique visitors in 2009 and that a maximum of 20% of those users are on the site at any given time. Credit Suisse’s analysis then assumed each user downloads a video at 400 kilobits per second, to yield a peak bit run-rate for YouTube of 30 million megabits per second.

  • YouTube is in a confused state at the moment, continuing to try to answer the question of how to monetize the majority of their contnet.  Premium content competitor Hulu is monetizing 100% of their content and has deals struck with nearly every major network. YouTube has deals with CBS and Lionsgate, but that’s not enough to compete on Hulu’s level nor support the massive amounts of useless viral content driving most of their traffic.

Update: YouTube is in talks to acquire licensing rights to full-length content from Sony Pictures, home of such films as “The International” and “Spider-Man,” sources familiar with the negotiations told CNET News. Details about what a final agreement could look like are sparse, but any partnership between the two powerhouses would likely benefit both.

[Post to Twitter] 

  • That estimate is way off. Nowhere near 20% of all people who ever visit Youtube are online at one time. Furthermore, even when actively using the site, people are only streaming video for a small portion of that, much of it is spent navigating which takes negligible bandwidth. To take the bandwidth it takes to play a video and multiply it by 20% of all the people who ever visit the site by 24 hours a day 365 days a year is outright irresponsible estimation.

    I still think Youtube was a horrible buy. The key is that Youtube by itself has no real content of any value, unlike Hulu which has things we actually want to watch, not videos of people putting Mentos in 2 liters of Diet Coke.
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